D.C. gun ban NOT

[denton]

We've always figured that we had at least four votes for an individual right, Roberts, Alito, Scalia, and Thomas. During the orals, Kennedy announced that 2A was clearly an individual right. So, as nearly as anyone can tell, we have at least a 5-4 majority.

The big issue is "standard of review", which determines how expansive laws can be in this area.

All the other rights guaranteed by the Bill of Rights are subject to strict scrutiny, which means the government must tread very lightly and carefully. Our dear Solicitor General asked for a more relaxed standard of review, which would leave the government more free to legislate. It's possible that the Supreme Court will see things that way, but I seriously doubt it.

Observers noted that the Court seemed not only willing, but eager to address the issue, and that those who are most likely to vote against an individual right were very subdued. That bodes well.

If we win big, and I think we will, it will not be the end of gun laws. It will be the beginning of the end of our worst gun laws. It will take many more years of suits to wrangle out what the limits are. Places like Kalifornia, NYC, and Chicago will probably see some of their laws tumble. However, Form 4473 or its descendents will probably be with us practically forever.